A shortened week this week due to Origin 1 (see our special). We always wondered how our model would go with its first Origin, and the impact it has on teams, but were quietly confident, that given our approach to predicting results, that the model would actually improve against the market (as we assign scores to every player and ins and outs are directly accounted for). Early evidence suggests the model works quite well. And when we say quite well we actually mean it's F#CKI

The greatest rivalry in Australian sport is back! No, not the Maroons versus the Blues. It’s TipBetPro versus the bookies. And as usual we have crunched the stats, analysed all the angles, and watched a lot of NRL, to bring you our data driven insights. Historic series winners Before we get to the proper analysis (well proper as in player based and current) it’s worth looking at what this is all about and where the games have been settled to date. So as you will all know, Que

In our special feature this week, we have taken a look at which squads have improved the most over the season to date. We have done this based on the improvement from our TipBetPro player rankings at the start of the year and after Round 9 for every player who has taken the field so far in season 2016. Now obviously this disadvantages those sides that were highly rated as season start (i.e. Hawthorn and West Coast) and the lower ranked sides have more scope for improvement.

Those following TipBetPro for the tipping side of things would have been wrapped as the two 50:50 games of Round 10 both went the way of TipBetPro with the two Adelaide sides getting up giving a great result of 8 correct tips (which to be honest was a little frustrating for this tipster after I forgot to put my footytips.com.au tips in!) TipBetPro now sits 6 tips ahead of bookies favourites for the season on 68 correct tips which should have you right up near the top in your

No, you do NOT need to adjust your eyes - the Titans column really is that much bigger than the rest! We may have to adjust the graph axis soon to accommodate it! The week started with a bit of a fizzle. We had high hopes for our favourites the Dragons, who looked good against the Rabbitohs. But as soon as those monkeys in the bunker claimed Josh Dugan hadn't put downward pressure on the ball (bearing in mind he basically snapped his elbow forcing the ball into the turf) the

A solid week of tipping but underwhelming week of betting for TipBetPro AFL in Round 9. We were very confident on Richmond and they proved a good choice as Bet of the Week delivering an easy $1.80 return for TipBetPro followers. However, our two high value roughies - Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs both had their moments and showed some reason for their value but ultimately were outclassed by West Coast and GWS respectively. Otherwise for the week the biggest blow was

Injuries are not an excuse, they’re a reason – Gerard Whately (well probably someone else before him but I love Gerard and that’s who I heard it from). TipBetPro are fully in Gerard’s camp with this one and as much as people hate to use injuries as an excuse, the fact is there is (unsurprisingly) a strong correlation between teams missing their best players and under-performance. The table below looks at how many Top 10 ranked players (as ranked by TipBetPro based on AFL Pla

So this week we are turning our attention away from TipBetPro (well sort of) and have put the spot light on the bookmakers, the odds they offer, and what a die-hard one-eyed fan may get if they bet on their team every week. One-Eyed Optimism You can never see your team lose. It just won’t happen. So we are ten rounds in, and you have bet $1 a week of your hard earned cash on your team (remember they can NOT lose). Where would you be now? Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers would b

The first week back after the rep round, and there was lots of value to be had. The model correctly tipped 6 of 8 games, with the exception of the Eels (discussed below) and the Roosters (go Titans!) ,although we actually recommended betting on a number of outsiders this week. That is, whilst we thought they were less than a 50% chance of a win, the odds made a bet worthwhile which is pretty much what our value betting approach is about! So what about the successes - well we

Can you predict Test Match outcomes using player based stats? As cricket fans we know that stats can help us to determine which team should win, but with so many stats it can be hard to know what is actually important, but this is what we have set out to achieve. To do so, we collected all the match data post-1990 and for any player that played in at least one of these games we collected their entire playing history (in some instances this stretched back into the 70’s). The r