State of Origin 1 Special
The greatest rivalry in Australian sport is back!
No, not the Maroons versus the Blues. It’s TipBetPro versus the bookies.
And as usual we have crunched the stats, analysed all the angles, and watched a lot of NRL, to bring you our data driven insights.
Historic series winners
Before we get to the proper analysis (well proper as in player based and current) it’s worth looking at what this is all about and where the games have been settled to date.
So as you will all know, Queensland have dominated in recent times, with an 8 game winning streak from 2006, followed by a surprise (well they had lost the previous 8) win for the Blues, before “normal” service was resumed last year, and the Maroons won again. Is it “normal” service, or was last year the anomaly, as an era of NSW dominance commences? Uhmmm!
It’s all about the players
We keep saying it, it’s a team based game, and is all about the 17 who take to the park each week. Well sort of. In Origin there are other factors that come to the fore, like having balls the size of watermelons (which grow in Queensland, as I picked some there, not sure about NSW - Actually, I checked and melon production in Australia is dominated by Queensland but NSW has grown some too).
Anyway, let’s get to it, based on the named teams and the TipBetPro player rankings we have the following:
So it’s a Queensland player advantage by around +6 points before we factor in other things. Not size of balls, but home state advantage, recent history, gut feel……..
Out of interest, the best clubs sides (think Cowboys and Broncos) are rated at around 123-124 most weeks. So there is a near 2 try difference to the Queensland team. The SOO teams are pretty special!
Home State Advantage
One would think that being at home is a big advantage and this is confirmed when looking at the statistics. The two main venues are Lang Park (Suncorp) and Stadium Australia (ANZ) and they are pretty much identical in favouring the home team. In terms of ANZ, there has been 23 games there, and 15 favour the Blues (you can see why they deserted SFS and SCG).
However, whilst the Blues have the overall win history, Queensland won there in 2013 and 2015, and the last three Blues wins have been my margins of 2, 8 and 4 (Paul Gallen won man of match in 2 out of 3 of these wins). Indeed the last 3 matches have been won by a total of 5 points (1, 2 and 2 point wins)!
Whilst on the subject of margins, the overall margins in all Origin games have been as follows, noting nearly 60% games have been settled by less than 10 points and last year’s record win (52-6) is a big anomaly!
So we are going to suggest NSW has a slight advantage here. Historically they have won 65% of games at ANZ with an average margin of 12 points, but in recent years it’s far more even, and the margins have been low. We will go with an unconverted try being the difference, so +4 for NSW.
The “Origin 1” Prediction
So Queensland have the better players and NSW have the crowd.
All up we predict a 2 point win to Queensland.
This basically means it is a coin toss and a 50:50 chance, which is reflected in the odds. In turn this means there is no value and our standard formula used week in week out would say Recommend No Bet.
But that is boring and there are money back specials galore on SOO. We therefore recommend getting on the Queensland team at 2.00 and enjoy cash back on our partners at Sportsbet if we are wrong (up to 8 points and assuming you don’t live in NSW – geez they can’t catch a break)
And why not have a go on the first try scorer too. Recommend Corey Oates who must surely get a try at some stage so pretty much can guarantee at least your money back if you go with Sportsbet.
What does history tell us about the series margin? The big lines are 3-0 series wins, the last of which was in 2010. Every other year since 2002 has been 2-1, so just the one game in it. So a 3-0 series win is unlikely? Well that’s until we see the teams and run the numbers?
We can’t go past a Queensland series win. Sorry NSW.
Given the player advantage is not huge and the recent history, the analysis suggest a 2-1 series win is more likely. So why not get on this too at 2.60.
Wally Lewis Medal
We don’t have too much to go on here, but let’s look at players who have been awarded man of the match (highlighted are current players) which should place them in a good position for player of the series:
Well you can’t go past Smith or Thurston here – what champs.
So we have made an executive decision – the highest TBP rated player will be our bet. And it goes to Cameron Smith, the Queensland captain (as he’s also a 5 time man of the match recipient and 3 time (2007,2011 and 2013) Wally Lewis medalist.
Hope you enjoyed our look at Origin. We can’t wait for the game and good luck to you all.