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AFL Mid-Season Review

So as we enter the halfway point of the season, we wanted to take a look at which teams have done us proud and which have let us down so far this season in our tips.

Well TipBetPro knows North! We have correctly tipped North in every game over the first half of the season … so when you see that we've tipped the Roos to upset the Cats this week … get on the Roos! Other strong sides in the TipBetPro model are Essendon (no surprises that our model hasn’t tipped the Dons this season), Western Bulldogs and St Kilda (our only error when we tipped the Saints to go down by a point to the Pies). At the other end of the table – the TipBetPro model is not sold on the Dees improvement only tipping them twice this season (one of which they lost!) to make the Dees our worst performing side.

Now let’s turn our attention to how the sides are currently rated by the TipBetPro model (based on Round 12 teams) and how their best 22 rates now compared to the start of the season.

Note: All Best 22s below are inclusive of every player on a list so all drug suspension players and season ending injuries are still in the list.

So the Swans and Giants have been the huge movers compared to start of year expectations. We had both NSW sides out of our Top 8 at the start of the season (foolish in hindsight we know!) however both have enjoyed outstanding seasons and, perhaps more importantly, are fit with their current named 22 closer to their best 22 than sides around them.

At the other end of the spectrum the big falls have come from Port (rated the 3rd best starting 22 at season start and now down to 8th) and Collingwood (7th down to 11th). Somewhat surprisingly we haven’t seen large improvement in Carlton’s best 22 which we still rate the 17th in the league (that’s a little deceptive though as virtually nothing separates 14th to 17th). This may suggest that the Blues current revival may be a false dawn premised on a fit list and great coaching rather than a list that can take them anywhere.

And what about the premiership hopes? We are of the firm belief that, subject to fitness, talent will win out in the end and the Hawks still have the highest rated “Best 22” in the AFL. Unfortunately for the Hawks, the “subject to fitness” is a big qualifier and with Jarryd Roughead out for the season the Hawks fall back into the pack. What we are left with are a group of six teams (West Coast, Hawthorn, North, Geelong, Sydney and the Dogs) whose best 22 are rated more or less the same. Of that lot the Dogs drop away once Bob Murphy is removed so we are are of the firm belief that the premier will come from the remaining 5 sides. A Top 4 position is a must and an ordinary start to the season puts that in doubt but TipBetPro are still bullish on West Coast to take out the flag. North Melbourne are best placed to find their way into the Grand Final with Geelong and Sydney the likely losing preliminary finallists.

TipBetPro Mid-Season Predictions

Premier: West Coast

Runner-Up: North Melbourne

Prelim Finalists: Sydney, Geelong

Remaining Finalists: Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Adelaide

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