Here at TipBetPro, we want to take an in-depth look at those great exponents of “sexy football”, the Western Bulldogs.
At the start of the 2015 season the Dogs were in disarray. They had lost their captain, coach and best player (Tom Liberatore) to injury in a tumultuous off-season and many were predicting they would be wooden spoon contenders. Certainly the TipBetPro model was no different, with our 2015 pre-season projections having the Dogs in a lowly 17th place.
For those of you who read our Round 4 wrap-up, you will know that we looked at our margin errors after 4 rounds for each teams, which are shown below: Rather amazingly we have predicted the Gold Coast Titans to within 5 points on average for each of the 4 games, and this is reflected in the fact that they’ve won us 3 bets from 3 and are by far and away our best performing team. But what about the other end? Where do we need to improve, and fast? Well it’s those Rabbitohs. The
Footy's back! TipBetPro started the week boldly declaring that a Deledio and Maric-less Richmond were not the sure thing to take care of Carlton that everyone seemed to think they were. In fact the Blues would have been our Bet of the Week (highest value head to head bet) had it not been for the fact we didn't have access to teams from the other games in order to make our predictions at the point of publishing the Tigers vs Blues predictions. So come 3 Quarter Time on Thurs
Round 4, and the last round of the Sportsbet money back special if your team loses by 8 or less. This has saved us 5 bets over the 4 weeks, including 2 this week, and means that whilst we've been close, we will miss you old money back special..... But ignoring this, we had another solid week, with St George doing us proud again, although annoyingly the -2.5 line proved 0.5 points too much! But whilst St George have proven to be solid contributors, what about the Titans. Bet o
For week three of the write up we had intended not focussing on the week that was, but providing you with a bit more detail on how we select our betting recommendations and Bet of the Week (BOTW). Then St George went and won! Who tips St George to beat the undefeated Rabbitohs....and then....and then says they're the BOTW? You guessed it...............We did....we did....we did!! Ok enough of this. We realise that the NRL is very hard to predict results and there will be week
Week two of TipBetPro NRL has been very exciting. We launched our Twitter account (#TipBetProNRL) and posted a few comments on websites such as The Roar. This lead to a few commentators questioning our model. Well, fair enough, we can't claim we know it all, and it's early days but by golly gosh we've started well. Game 1: Predicted margin - Raiders by 2 - actual margin Raiders by 2. We admit we bet on the Panthers as underdogs (see the article Lies, Damn Lies and NRL statist
In 2014 only 62% of pre-game favourites actually went on to win. In 2015 this fell to just 61%. This is far lower than other sports (AFL is over 70% for instance) and tells us two things: NRL is a tough game to predict the result There’s some tasty odds if you can pick the right underdogs So could you use statistics to predict results? Or more importantly pick results better than the bookies? If you could, what statistics would be useful? What factors actually impact the resu
The first week of TipBetPro NRL has been an exciting one, with some huge highs, and thanks to Sydney, some pretty disappointing lows.
Our betting week started in game 2 of the round (we were confident Brisbane would win the first game and the bookies had their odds right) with the fancied Sea Eagles taking on the (under) Doggies. At 2.25 we were quietly confident of the Bulldogs for an upset and how did they prove us right. It wasn't very quiet at TipBetPro when the Doggies
Take 3 of the TipBetPro pre-season projections. With the Essendon top-up players now named, and plenty of experience amongst the top-up group, TipBetPro are no longer predicting the catastrophic win-less season per our Projection update post the Essendon 12 being banned. However, the Bombers, whilst no longer considered complete easy-beats, still stand out as the weakest side in the AFL and thus there remains a healthy benefit to Geelong, Gold Coast, Richmond, St Kilda and C