NRL - Origin 1 Special
The greatest rivalry in Australian sport is back!
No, note the Maroons versus the Blues. It’s TipBetPro versus the bookies.
And as usual we have crunched the stats, analysed all the angles, and watched a lot of NRL, to bring you our data driven insights.
Origin 1 2017
The odds, courtesy of oddschecker are as follows (as at Sunday night):
The bookmakers have the Blues winning this one in a nail biter………….but do we agree?
Historic series winners
Before we get to the proper analysis it’s worth looking at what this is all about and where the games have been settled to date.
So as you will all know, Queensland have dominated in recent times, with an 8 game winning streak from 2006, followed by a surprise (well they had lost the previous 8) win for the Blues, before “normal” service has resumed in the past 2 years, with the Maroons winning again and again. Is it “normal” service, or are the Blues about to embark on their own streak?
It’s all about the players
Anyway, let’s get to it, based on the named teams and the TipBetPro player rankings we have the following:
New South Wales
So it’s the new look NSW team with a slight player advantage by +2 points before we factor in other things like home state advantage.
Compared to last year’s teams the total TBP player ratings are actually a bit lower, especially for Queensland who were rated a whopping 136 points for Origin 1 last year – so they have lost around 8 points in a year (think Thurston, Parker).
Home State Advantage
One would think that being at home is a big advantage and this is confirmed when looking at the statistics. The two main venues are Lang Park (Suncorp) and Stadium Australia (ANZ) and they are pretty much identical in favouring the home team. In terms of Lang Park, there has been 50 games there, and 31 favour the Maroons.
In terms of Margins, Origin is generally a tight affair, with 41% of games being settled by less than a converted try.
but Lang Park has seen some big wins in recent years for the Maroons (24, 46 and 10 points).
So we are going to suggest QLD has the advantage here (I know, talk about going out on a limb!).
The “Origin 1” Prediction
So NSW have the better players and QLD have the crowd.
All up we predict a 2 point win to Queensland.
This basically means it is a coin toss and a 50:50 chance, which is reflected in the odds. In turn this means there is no value and our standard formula used week in week out would say Recommend No Bet, but why not get on Queensland 1 - 5 points at 5.75?
Hope you enjoyed our look at Origin. We can’t wait for the game and good luck to you all.