TBP A-League is coming


The AFL has finished and our AFL guy will move on to his summer sport of basketball (NBL). But the NRL guy, what is he going to do for the summer?

Well the answer is football, or soccer for those who know no better. And specifically the A-League.

The game maybe a new one to TBP, but the approach is not.

"Player statistics and who is named drives our tips"

As with all our sports we take a player based approach to predicting the results. That is the players who are named to take to the field have the greatest impact on the result. No shit we hear you say.

A-League is a data rich environment with all sorts of stats. But which ones actually impact the results?

The official A-league stats collected cover 26 variables, some attacking, some defensive, some around discipline and some about the goal keeper’s ability to stop the ball getting into the net.

We have used a variety of techniques to determine which of the 26 variables can be used to predict the result, and over how many games said variables lend weight to the predicted outcomes.

To be honest there weren’t too many surprises. Teams with players who pass it, cross it, shoot it and score it more than others tend to win more!

"The teams who score the most goals tend to win"

Of course the player stats are not the only thing we consider. There’s form, ladder position, home ground advantage, and how many times the ball goes in the opposing net compared to their own.

So what of the results?

Back testing over several seasons has shown some very encouraging potential for a nice return and certainly in line with our other sports.

Unlike NRL and AFL, where there are only really two results (a win or a loss), football (soccer) introduces the chance (about 20%) of a draw. Despite this, the initial approach for TBP will be predicting a winner, and if we think said prediction has an expected value of over 1.10 (calculated as odds multiplied by confidence in prediction) we will recommend a bet.

The weekly bets will be posted and for each game will look like this:

If the bet meets our thresholds it will be a nice green colour!

The approach relies on at least 5 games of player stats, so like NBL, we will start recommending bets from round 6.

"TBP A-League arrives 30th November 2018"

So look out for the new and exciting TBP A-League and follow us on Twitter (@tipbetpro @tipbetpro_nrl ) and Facebook (Tip Bet Pro).


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