NRL Round 10 Wrap
The first week back after the rep round, and there was lots of value to be had.
The model correctly tipped 6 of 8 games, with the exception of the Eels (discussed below) and the Roosters (go Titans!) ,although we actually recommended betting on a number of outsiders this week. That is, whilst we thought they were less than a 50% chance of a win, the odds made a bet worthwhile which is pretty much what our value betting approach is about!
So what about the successes - well we went against the market on both St George and the Storm, with the model predicting they would win their respective matches by 2 and 1 points. Well they won by 4 points and the exact 1 point predicted, so over these two games a rather good 2 points out in total on the margin and returns of 2.25 and 2.75. Lovely (special mention to St George who have won us more than any other team). Of course we also bet on the Titans, despite thinking the Roosters could go back to back. How glad are we that the Roosters try was disallowed, as after that the Titans were irresistible and are back challenging the Dragons for the mantle of best ever TipBetPro NRL team. Now 3 of the 4 remaining recommended bets were all on teams we thought were less than a 50% chance of winning but the odds were too good to ignore a bet (NZ, Sea Eagles and Wests). Alas the model was right and they all lost! So good for tipping. Not so much for betting. But the old adage, you win some you lose some, comes to mind. We should note that for Manly in particular, who were always a long shot, the late outs hurt and we'd have not recommended a bet based on teams that played.
Now this brings us to the other bet that we lost this week. It was very painful and involved the perennial villains, the Rabbitohs. How the hell they won that game is beyond us. It was a costly loss, impacting the H2H and novelty bets for the round and what could have been a great week became an ok one. We didn't know how the Eels would react following the salary cap findings and the loss of Peats to the Titans, and whilst we thought they'd be comfortable winners, there was always an "unknown" which we have no data on. Is this a temporary thing? Will the Eels bounce back? Well we will be recommending bets on the Eels and any game involving the Rabbitohs with great caution over the next few weeks!
A new chart below this week - we were asked how our returns look based on confidence - so for example when we are only 40% to 45% confident, do we make any money. Well yes - it took a hit this week, but still up. Our biggest successes have been on the close to call games, like the Storm and Dragons this week, which is pleasing.