AFL Round 22 Wrap

Sometimes you have good weeks that don't really reflect in earnings. The results this week saw a small loss in head to head, small win on novelties and a break even on Bet of the Week with money back on our 6 leg multi that we were very confident in. To be honest though the biggest mistake was not making more bets as our model had a flier with 8 of 9 correct tips (including the 50/50 West Coast tip) and an error margin of just 18 points per game (particularly good when you consider that includes a 55 point margin on the Melbourne vs Carlton).

So what went wrong? Well not a lot to be fair. Even though we didn't tip them, we liked the value on North at huge odds and the Roos did exactly what we expected them to do and took it right up to Sydney down in Tasmania. The Roos actually won every statistical category ... except the one that matters in going down narrowly by 9 points. Not a win but certainly not a bad bet either and with a little more composure the Roos probably should have won that game. Our other two head to head bets got up although were low paying (Collingwood and Adelaide) to not quite offset the North loss and we won 3 of 5 line bets for a small profit on novelties.

So that took us to our Bet of the Week which in a round where we didn't see a lot of value was a 6 leg multi. The multi seemed to be cruising to victory until Melbourne inexplicably failed to turn up when they had the most on the line destroying their finals hopes with a horror loss to a Carlton side coming off 9 losses. We claimed the money back with only one leg failing but it would be fair to say it was a most disappointing result to not get the Win.

All the same the leading indicators are all there that we are set for a successful finish to the season and hopefully replicate our spectacular 2015 finals campaign.