AFL Round 13 Wrap

A strong rebound week for TipBetPro after last week's horror show and helped confirm that last week was an anomaly and the model is still growing with confidence (similar to what it has done in prior years) with every round. One key metric we use to measure model accuracy is the margin of error and although luck can obviously play a part, traditionally if we have a model that can average less than a 30 point error, that tends to be a profit making model.

For the 4th time in 5 weeks we achieved that 30 point benchmark with only last week's disaster standing as a blip on our record.

Friday night saw Bet of the Week go down but it was with a silver lining. North only just made our Bet of the Week cut-off (36% probability of a North win compared to our minimum cut-off of 35%) but a combination of a bye week (only 6 games) and a generous big/little margin special at sportsbet.com.au meant that we also had the Hawks in our multi and a 1-39 margin bet. Not typically great practise to bet against yourself but with the specials on hand we thought the value was there. As it turned out North gave a great account of themselves proving to be very good value at the high odds with only poor kicking at goal ultimately costing them the win. No matter - we took the Hawks 1-39 win and the first leg of our multi and moved on.

From there the week was smooth sailing. The Geelong and Sydney head to head bets all but offset the North loss and every line came in except for Brisbane (only just missing!). Most importantly, despite GWS putting a few nerves in the TipBetPro camp - our $3 multi also came in making it a great week on the novelties with a 72% profit recorded. We did get the one tip wrong in tipping Port to beat Fremantle - however, leaving Port out of all betting recommendations justified our low confidence in that tip and so if we were going to get one wrong - that was a good one to miss out on.

A good recovery and good reward for TipBetPro AFL followers who stood firm after last week's shocker.


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