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AFL Round 8 Wrap-up

We are the navy blues, we are the old dark navy blues! Who would have ever thought Carlton would be a TBP favourite! Well they are after back to back Bet of the Week victories and with just a 15 point error margin from the TipBetPro model we always like a side that follows statistical trends (take a good hard look at yourself Port Adelaide!).

Only the two Head to Head bets this week and both were underdog tips and bets that came in with Geelong overcoming inaccuracy (so much inaccuracy!) to beat the Crows and Carlton famously coming from 3 goals down to beat the Power.

Four novelties brought a mixed result as Hawthorn failed to beat the line (just) and an insipid Gold Coast were nowhere near keeping GWS under a 9 goal winning margin. The Carlton line win and a successful multi (keeping Sydney out was a good call!) rescued the novelties for the week with just a small loss offsetting a significant Head to Head win.

Season to date and the model is showing signs of sneaking towards our 30 point error margin target with again a blow out in the Sunshine State killing our averages (Collingwood over Brisbane this week following Melbourne over Gold Coast last week). Carlton and Western Bulldogs continue to be the sides we can predict with most confidence whilst Port Adelaide (despite being almost exact this week!) and Gold Coast are the sides with our greatest margin of error.

Season to date returns continue to look strong and Bet of the Week looks outstanding at +74%. We will miss the safety net of the money back for leading at any change special at sportsbet which now goes away. Although traditionally the model does improve with accuracy as the season goes on and more current data is fed in so we are confident of maintaining close to the strong head to head returns (currently +29%) even with no money back special on offer.

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