NRL Round 7 Wrap-Up
This is what we said last week:
'What a week for followers of TipBetPro - 2 of the 3 H2H bets came in, including the Bet of The Week (BoTW) which saw Manly defeat NZ and bring in a rather tasty 3.05 ......To make things even better our AFL arm of TipBetPro decided to join in the fun and the AFL BoTW (St Kilda at 2.85) also came romping home."
Well roll on a week, and we can just write it again.........what a week. Across AFL and NRL we recommended 12 bets (units) and had a return of 19.92 units.....so pretty bloody good.
In NRL we recorded 2 from 3 H2H bets included the Bet of The Week (BoTW) win on Cronulla. By the time of the game they were favourites but we got them at 2.15, and St George at an even better 2.30. The Dragons are now nearly at the top of our money chart, just behind the team they beat this week. We really expected the Dragons to score this week, but didn't expect them to play so well - they looked good!
So the only blemish was Manly v Eels - this has lead to some interesting debates at TBP. Why doesn't the model like the Eels, who are clearly a good team? Well we think we have found the answer and certainly the defensive games of the Eels is not rewarded as well as it could be in our model algorithm. The trick is to amend the model such that it adequately rewards elite defensive outfits such as Parramatta without taking away from the current bias towards successful attacking sides such as North Queensland and Brisbane. So, there may be some slight model refinements over the coming weeks, however they are likely to be very subtle as we certainly don't want to be making any significant changes to a model that is working so well!
We managed to get the Bunnies tip pretty close this week, so the average margin error for all teams is now under 20!
Now, no one likes big heads, but we thought it was time to show the weekly head to head bet returns and the Bet of The Week (note we have ignored novelty betting - it's not important!). BoTW is particularly pleasing - this is generally a long shot, where we differ from the bookies the most - 5 from 7 have come in which is rather good, even if we do say so ourselves. Pressure is on to keep it up!!