AFL Round 23 Wrap


It was never going to be an overly exciting round at TipBetPro AFL HQ with only one lowly paying head to head bet (Geelong), two lines (Geelong and Sydney) and a multi recommended. However wins in both the head to head and lines bet and a money back in the multi is almost as good as you can hope for and we are feeling pretty happy with a strong finish to the season heading into finals.

Perhaps the only frustrating part of the weekend was that two bets that were identified as value but just outside our minimum confidence level for a bet (West Coast to beat Adelaide and Fremantle to beat Western Bulldogs) both got up. This has continued a frustrating trend for value bets in the 30-35% confidence level getting up to this season and in fact if we had lowered our minimum betting confidence level to 30% we would have returned 29% rather than 12% on the season to date. For interest, these are the additional bets that would have been recommended:

Round 2: Brisbane to beat North (Loss) Round 2: Gold Coast to beat Freo (Win - $5.25) Round 2: St Kilda to beat Dogs (Loss) Round 8: Richmond to beat Sydney (Win - $4.30) Round 11: Essendon to beat Freo (Loss) Round 17: Port to beat North (Win - $3.10) Round 21: West Coast to beat GWS (Win - $3.70) Round 23: West Coast to beat Adelaide (Win - $3.90) Round 23: Freo to beat Dogs (Win - $3.55)

What could have been!

Needless to say we'll be spending a lot of time in the off-season looking at confidence levels and betting thresholds!

TipBetPro AFL will return in two weeks time for finals action and in the meantime keep an eye on our news page for the TipBetPro All Australian Team and in the light of the refreshing battle between Essendon and Brisbane to avoid the wooden spoon, a look at the correlation between draft picks and TipBetPro Player Rankings.


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