AFL Wrap Round 21
Brisbane and Essendon - solid sides to bet on I'm sure you'll agree! Well we think so anyway and so it proved this week as we enjoyed big paying wins on the back of both the bottom 2 sides. Our pre-round preview identified that we expected there to be 4 close games which the bookies saw as one-sided and hence we loved the approx $3 value on the underdogs. Well we split the four value bets 2 & 2 which was pretty much in line with expectations so feeling pretty good about ourselves this week. Match by match:
- Dogs vs Collingwood: we identified that the Dogs long injury list opened the door up to the possibility of an upset and so it showed as for significant periods of this game the Pies looked like getting up. Alas it wasn't to be as the Dogs snuck home by 3 points. Somewhat frustratingly the Pies never led at any quarter break so we didn't even get our money back on what we maintain was a good value bet.
- Brisbane vs Carlton: the Lions have been good to TipBetPro on the few times we have bet on them this season and for the 3rd time we got a big paying win on Brisbane (in their only 3 wins - now that's good bet value identification!). The Lions dominated early but had to survive a huge 2nd half comeback from a rampant Blues and we were fairly fortunate the siren went when it did as a couple of minutes later and suspect this one would have gone against us.
- Saints vs Sydney: the Saints have been our best performing side all season and quickly wrapped up money back by leading the highly fancied Swansat quarter time. The fact they went on to then lose by 70 points is irrelevant and we will not hear a bad work against our TipBetPro favourites
- Essendon vs Gold Coast: away from home and missing plenty of their better midfielders we felt the Suns were vulnerable against Essendon who showed a bit against Geelong the week prior. Right we were as the Bombers had a huge last quarter to over-run the Suns and get us our biggest paying winner of the week at the very tasty odds of $3.60
Our final bet of the week was on Geelong at the skinny odds of $1.18 which we took because they were a near certainty against the Tigers according to the TipBetPro model. And whilst some were sweating when Geelong were nearly 6 goals down at three quarter time we were always confident because, well, they were playing Richmond. Cats get up by 3 and with 3 wins plus a money-back from the week, TipBetPro returns a handy 74% on head to head bets.
Six winning weeks from the last eight has lifted head to head betting record to 13% and we're feeling pretty good about ourselves - may even chase down that cocky TipBetPro NRL crowd yet!