AFL Round 19 Wrap

A good week to have a quiet week of betting. We still feel quite comfortable with our Bet of the Week roughie of the Dogs. The Doggies had the better of game play in the first term and were unlucky not to be in front at quarter time (particularly unlucky for us as it would have got us money back!). By the time star midfielder Tom Liberatore went down midway through the 2nd the Dogs had taken control of the game (and it was starting to be reflected on the scoreboard) and our bet was looking great. Unfortunately the loss of Liberatore was a little much to overcome for an already injury depleted Dogs and combined with some 3rd quarter inaccuracy (and more Dogs injury concerns!), Geelong asserted their authority and came away with the win. In our only other head to head bet for the week, West Coast at least did the right thing by ensuring money back with a fast start to lead at quarter time ... and then fell into an almighty hole in the 2nd term from which they could not recover as West Coast were finally punished for some ordinary recent form.

So from a race in 8, it now appears to be a race in 5 for the 2016 flag. On TipBetPro measures, we can just about rule out the following three sides now:

- North Melbourne: insufficient elite talent (only Todd Goldstein is rated by TipBetPro as elite)

- Western Bulldogs: too many injuries to key players

- West Coast: too many out-of-form players (they still have the talent but almost their entire best 22 has gone backwards in their player ratings this season)

Of the 5 remaining we have lingering doubts (albeit doubts that can be overcome) on Geelong (too much reliance on Dangerfield and Selwood) and GWS (insufficient experience, particularly in finals) with our model suggesting that Hawthorn (still our pick for the flag), Sydney (best elite talent but fall away after their top 10) and Adelaide (can the dream continue?) to be the best placed for the flag.

Bring on finals - they promise to be a beauty!