AFL Round 18 Wrap

There is generally a correlation between model accuracy and profits and that has been shown numerous times this season ... but sometimes you can just get lucky. The latter is the case this week but we're not complaining. To be honest the model was off this week - it tipped three upsets (Collingwood, Adelaide and Port) none of which came in and two other games gave a 95% confidence level (Sydney and West Coast) in games that went down to the last second.

There was one thing the model has always been good at over the last 5 seasons though - picking where the market is way off mark. Two games this week stood out on that measure. The Saints (at $3.50) against the Dogs and the Lions (at $2.85) against the Bombers. Thankfully for TBP supporters - both games we identified as value (the Saints so much that it was Bet of the Week!) and both games saw the value rewarded as the Saints and Lions delivered us a handy profit with great victories.

On that note - how much do we love the Saints this season! And just quietly, only had a couple of bets - but the Lions aren't too bad either! Not so fond of North, Freo and Port!

So as we said model didn't really predict all that well this week and average error was high but thankfully didn't impact profits (although tipping was awful!). It's instructive that the three upset games that we got wrong all involved teams we have found the hardest tip accurately this season - Collingwood (41 point error margin), Geelong (38) and Port Adelaide (35).

But it's returns that we are after and with back to back strong weeks we have got out to a handy 9% buffer once again ... would be good to crack double figures so bring on Round 19!


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