State of Origin 3 Special
The greatest rivalry in Australian sport is back, for the third and final Origin!
No, not the Maroons versus the Blues. It’s TipBetPro versus the bookies.
Origin 1 and 2 – A reminder
For those with short term memory issues, Origin 1 was an arm wrestle, peppered with controversial refereeing and a cameo to forget from Dylan Walker.
We had had a detailed look at all things Origin before game 1, plugged the teams into the model and out popped the following analysis:
Queensland Player Advantage + 6 points
NSW Home Ground Advantage + 4 points
Overall prediction – Queensland to win by 2 points in a low scoring game (like 6-4).
Actual result Queensland won 6-4.
The second game at Suncorp was a more open affair, and we had the following analysis:
Queensland Player Advantage + 10 points
Queensland Home Ground Advantage + 6 points
Overall prediction – Queensland to win by 16 points in a higher scoring game.
Actual result Queensland won 26-16.
So over the two games we were 6 out on margin and called both games! Can it continue with a dead rubber?
Historic series winners
So a brief reminder of what’s happened in the past (primarily as the graph took a while to do and we want the mileage):
So as you will all know, Queensland have dominated in recent times, with an 8 game winning streak from 2006, followed by a surprise (well they had lost the previous 8) win for the Blues, before “normal” service was resumed last year, and the Maroons won again.
The graph needs updating now as the Maroons have secured a second series in a row and 10 from the last 11. But will it be 2-1 or 3-0!
The Ins and Outs
As we keep reminding you it’s a team based game, and is all about the 17 who take to the park each week. And based on the teams in Origin 1 and 2 we had the Maroons with the advantage based on TipBetPro’s player ratings.
So what has changed since Origin 2?
Well finally the Blues have decided to pick players based on skill and form, and in James Teddy Tedesco you don’t get much better. How it’s taken this long is unbelievable. Tedesco came in for Moylan, who is also playing well, but he has a reprieve given Reynolds injury. Bird comes into the halves and Dugan and Graham return, giving the Blues a stronger looking line-up.
The Maroons are just rolling along, although a couple of injuries mean a debut for Gavin Cooper and a return of Nate Myles.
The TipBetPro player rankings are as follows:
So the Queensland player advantage remains, although is a little lower than Origin 2, and now stands at +7 points.
Cameron Smith has returned to be the highest ranked player.
The Retiring Greats
It would be remiss of us not to mention the impending last games for two greats of the game. Gallen v Parker is too hard to call based on their respective influences. Both players are rated at over 9 points (so in the top few in the game) and neither deserve to go out a loser.
We hope they both have big games and aren’t tempted to knock each other out.
Home State Advantage
As mentioned in prior articles, playing at home is a big advantage and this is confirmed when looking at the statistics. The two main venues are Lang Park (Suncorp) and Stadium Australia (ANZ) and they are pretty much identical in favouring the home team.
As detailed in Origin 1, NSW have a great record at ANZ, and we gave them a 4 point home ground advantage. But this is game 3 of a series they have already lost. Will this make a difference?
According to NRL.com they have evaded a 3-0 series scoreline three times in Origin III prior (1984, 2007 and 2009) but never have they done so in Sydney.
As shown previously, the series have been as follows, so the last 3-0 was in 2010.
In terms of game 3 at ANZ (Stadium Australia) we have the following:
So one draw and Queensland winning the last 3 by around 4 points each time.
All up it doesn’t tell us a lot, and we are going to say for game 3 the home ground advantage of NSW (+4) from Origin 1 isn’t any higher and maybe a bit lower. Just so that have an advantage let’s say +1 in honour of Gallen.
The “Origin 3” Prediction
So Queensland have the better players still and playing at ANZ doesn’t appear to hold too many demons (but then again Teddy is playing this time!).
All up we predict a 6 point win to Queensland.
So using our model, this equates to a 56% probability of a Queensland win, and as its stands you can get odds of around 1.94 (it’s pretty much a draw according to the bookies). This is turn means an expected value of around 1, so would be a Recommend No Bet (like in Origin 1 and 2), BUT……….
We do fancy Queensland in a tight one so going against our own advice never to bet on this type of bet and recommend Queensland by 1-12 points paying 2.95 and this is our main recommendation.
And why not have a go on the first try scorer too. We recommended Corey Oates in Origin 1 and Origin 2. We’d look silly if we changed it, so let’s go Corey again! We also fancy a little bet on Corey Parker at 51.00. Get on (but maybe not much).
Our tip for the Wally Lewis medal was Cameron Smith and we will let that one roll (well have no choice!) and will back this up by suggesting he’s a man of the match contender for Origin 3.
Given the player advantage is not huge and the recent history, our analysis at the start of the series suggested a 2-1 series win is more likely, and Queensland are the team most likely to win it. So they’ve got the 2, and as detailed above we can’t see them losing the third (but wouldn’t mind for the series bet).
It’s been emotional.
Hope you enjoyed our look at Origin 1, 2 and 3, and good luck to you all.
To see our betting recommendations, including our Bet of The Week, and to read more about our approach, and to compare our performance with your own, please visit www.tipbetpro.com or follow us (abuse us) on Twitter @tipbetpronrl.