NRL Round 17 Wrap

Last week we said ........Aaarrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

This week it is ............fuuuuuuuuuuccccccccccckkkkkkkk!!!

What promised to be one of our most successful weeks ever was blown away, literally, by the Dragons serving up one of the most inept performances ever witnessed. Anyway we will get to this in a minute.

Before Monday nights nightmare, we were 7 from 7 tips, on the back of the previous weeks 7 from 7, and were looking good. Very good. We recommended 4 H2H bets in these 7 tips, with 2 bets going against the tips (so we saw value in betting on the underdog). The first of these was the Roosters against the recently impressive Bulldogs. The final score was a narrow win to the Bulldogs by 4 and once again we felt justified in recommending the bet (note we are still up on these bets when the probability is less than 50%). The second game was the Titans. As detailed on social media, some big outs for the Titans meant we no longer saw the value that was there on the Tuesday. But even then there were glimpses of an upset, but it was not to be (the exact margin prediction was nice albeit lucky given outs).

The other two bets were on the Storm and the Wests. Both teams did us more than proud, with the Storm inflicting one of the biggest ever (not sure if biggest) defeats on the Broncos, who are looking very poor. Surely this can't all be blamed on Origin? The Storm win was far more than predicted, so has screwed our margins this week, but at least we predicted they'd win which the market didn't. As for Wests, what a comeback, and guess who inspired it? Yes, you guessed it, the soon to be NSW player James "Teddy" Tedesco. He's some player.

So we get to Monday. Our BoTW and the last leg of a 10.66 multi. Now some may have cashed out, and if you did, well done. We backed the Dragons in, as they had a player advantage according to our model as well as a bit of form. Well a bit compared to the Sea Eagles who hadn't won since Julia Gillard was prime minister. As the commentators said 10 minutes in, Manly have had 15 off loads in the entire season to date, and matched that in 10 minutes of this game. To be fair Manly had looked better in recent weeks, but this performance and the result raises eyebrows. Is it a wonder they are the team under match fixing investigation? That's a bit unfair - maybe it should be the Dragons who should under investigation, as they were just as woeful as the Sea Eagles were good.

What a sad end to a tipping streak going back 3 rounds. A small loss ensued and this is getting annoyingly regular. Another bye round doesn't help. We're a bit like the Broncos it seems - put everything into Origin and the tank is empty. But we will find some fuel and be back!!

See you next week!


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