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NRL Round 16 Wrap


The week that so nearly was!

This week saw us get 7 from 7 tips correct and the model continues to be pretty accurate on the margin too (only the Bulldogs smashing the Broncos being an outlier).

But despite the very solid tipping we didn't win a H2H bet this week. We only saw value in two games this week, and in both games the bookies saw the underdogs having little chance, with both teams having odds of 3.00 or more at the start of play. We are talking about South Sydney versus the Panthers and the Warriors against the table topping Sharks.

In both games we thought the underdogs were a real chance of an upset and the odds made the value too good to ignore. And how close to being right were we!!

Firstly, we have the Rabbitohs on Friday night, who were without the injured Reynolds (something we didn't know when teams were announced on Tuesday) and having Inglis backing up within 48 hours of Origin. By golly gosh did they come close to the upset we thought they could muster. They went down by 2 points (so a full 7.5 points inside the line which is a good indication they performed far batter than the bookies thought), but any deficit, no matter how small is still a loss. We didn't think we could get so close and still lose, until..........

Secondly, we had the Warriors up against the Sharks. The bookies gave the Warriors no hope also but despite only just getting past the Roosters last time out, we have seen enough in the past 3 weeks to make us think the Warriors are nearly up to the standards they should be at. What a game. And how close did we come to picking up a juicy win. The Warriors nearly snatched it in normal time and with a further 15 seconds would have won it in the first half of golden point. Alas, it wasn't to be and the Sharks won again (now 1.30 for the minor premiership which is handy if you bet on them at the beginning of the season at 15.00). Again, the margin was way inside the line at 9.5, so shows we were on the right lines.

So, two roughies, both losing within 2 points. Well early in the season these games dropped and with a value approach we are always going to lose a few. But the model is still going well so we'll be back!

We did win both a line bet this week on the Dragons, but the Cowboys some how managed to not make their line (18-4 up at half-time and coasting , but sea eagles showed some spirit in 2nd half)

See you next week!

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