AFL Round 14 Wrap
Geelong have been good to us on head to head bets this season. Three times we've bet on the Cats for three wins and a handy return of 5.11 units for our 3 unit bet. So why are anti-Cat? Because is there any danger of them turning up against ordinary opposition!!! Three times now the Cats have killed our multi with losses against Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda ... Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda ffs! And just for good measure they are the third side this season that we have declared our number 1 ranked team only for them to lose that ranking within a fortnight (following North Melbourne and West Coast's slumps). The Hawks have now progressed to be our number 1 ranked contender for the 2016 premiership ... so get on Port in a couple weeks time when the Hawks play their next game.
Anyway now that we've got that out of our system it must be said it was a pretty good week. The week was always going to hinge on the clutch Collingwood tip and bet as our model suggested that the market had over-reacted to the Dockers run of form. That worked out nicely with the Pies getting the job done comfortably. Our only other head to head bet was on Richmond who were paying just $1.07 so there wasn't a lot of money on the line. However when there is a 99% confidence on the tip that still passes our 5% value threshold and we took the easiest 7% profit you're ever likely to make.
A couple of misses on the lines (1 from 3) plus only the money back instead of the win (once again - screw you Geelong) meant we finished down on novelties but overall we expect most followers of TipBetPro AFL to have won over the week as we head into the final bye rounds.
Margins continue to be below the 30 point threshold we aim for continuing the models improvement over the 2nd half of the season.
And returns across every bet type are positive ... albeit heading for our worst ever head to head betting result if we don't have a big 2nd half of the season.