NRL Round 13

It would be fair to say when we launched TipBetPro NRL this year, despite the extensive back testing, we weren't too sure if we could replicate the success of our AFL model. NRL is a more difficult game to predict. There are a lot more "upsets" and form seems to come and go. Players switch clubs, it seems on a weekly basis, injuries abound and of course there's match fixing to contend with too. But what we have discovered is, that if you can do a better job than the bookies of assessing the probabilities of a win, there is plenty of value to be had. And to date, we are seeing lots of value!

The Origin impact, whilst very unkind on the Bronco's has actually been great for TBP. We have seen a couple of weeks of our most accurate tipping to date. This week, we had both the Roosters and Titans margins spot (14 and 1 point respectively) and were 2, 4 and 6 points out on the Cowboys, Storm and Raiders wins. We tipped 6 of the 7 of the games all up, and critically suggested combining 5 of them in a 7.14 multi. You beauty!

So all up this greater accuracy (and to be fair the bookies were pretty spot on in general this week) has led to yet more favourable returns for TBP and our followers. This week has been our first 100% correct bets week, across H2H, novelty and BoTW, so is another milestone notched up.

The highlight of the week (may have been overtaken, see next paragraph) was definitely the Titans and Rabbitohs game at the NiB stadium in Perth. The TBP team went to the match, handing out promotional fliers (bit old fashioned but you have to give these things a go) and were delighted to hear feedback from punters that they already followed us. Who knew! Our model had difficulty splitting the two teams and the Perth factor was also a bit unusual. What is the home ground advantage? Well when we factored it all in we had the Titans winning by one. So needless to say when the Titans went up 24-10 in the 58th minute, we were thinking the bet was safe. But fair play to the Rabbitohs, roared on by a vocal crowd and some solid load speaker action, they started to look threatening. Now at this stage, I must confess I was keen for a Rabbitohs fight back to make the margin look better. My TBP colleague, and indeed founder of TBP, was not so keen. Bugger that he just wanted the win. So as you know I got my wish and the Bunnies looked unstoppable, with a kick after the siren taking us to GP. At this stage we realised the one point margin was very much on, we just weren't sure if it would go the Titans way. When Reynolds kick sailed over in the first term, we thought the bet had gone, but the sight of the video review being called for gave us a sniff of salvation. It would be fair to say we were the only people in the crowd dancing when we saw the obstruction. And then we knew we were home (or at least I did). And then stepped forward the TBP and Titans hero, Mr Ashley Taylor, who's 88th minute wonder goal secured us another win, and has earned Ashley a beer or two if we ever bump into him.

So what could possibly outdo the Titans? Well it was a lacklustre Sharks, that's who. They were BoTW, the final leg of the 5 leg MRL multi and for some of us the last leg of 10 leg multi combining our AFL multi (this came in too just in case you didn't see this). And they were playing like a bunch of #$%&ers. There was no energy, balls were being dropped for fun, and I'd already started to write up this article about the Titans win. What a kick. James Maloney take a very big bow and consider yourself also invited for a beer with Ashley.

What a week. And the NRL dream continues.

We should stress, that one shouldn't expect such perfection every week, but when it comes around, and you'd already jumped on the bandwagon, you may as well celebrate! Wow......we love NRL.

Happy punting.


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