AFL Round 11 Wrap
It was the fight back of the Novelty Bet this week at TipBetPro with 3 out of 4 line bets (damn you Lachie Whitfield and your after the siren goal!) and a tasty $2.94 multi leading to a 74% weekly profit on Novelty betting. This has led to our novelty bets recovering from modest returns for the year to date to now be returning 16% which is far more in line with our targets!
Our main game though is head to head betting and with the model improving with accuracy as the season goes on (as it always does!) we have dropped our Expected Value threshold (probability of win multiplied by odds) to 1.05 for the remainder of the season (was 1.10). That move paid immediate dividends with Geelong slipping into the "Recommended Bet" category that they wouldn't have otherwise been in.
A few more favourite bets this week with the TipBetPro model having far higher confidence than the market in the Roos (91%), Blues (87%) and Cats (72%) this week. Our confidence was justified with all those three bets coming in and the Roos emphatically delivering a 6th consecutive Bet of the Week recommendation! Somewhat annoyingly, despite a win - this dropped our BoTW season returns as the Roos were only paying $1.50 so a 50% return dropped our average BoTW return from 76% to 74% on the season). The only bad news for the week was West Coast not managing to get the upset over the Dogs which not only reduced our weekly head to head returns to a modest 7% profit but also gave one back to favourites in the tipping (we're still 5 ahead of faves for the season).