AFL Round 7 Wrap
In the interests of full disclosure, I go a little harder on Bet of the Week (makes sense - it is our highest value bet) and Multis (just because I like them ... nothing livens up watching Essendon vs Sydney on a Saturday afternoon like getting stressed and throwing cushions at the TV when the Bombers sneak ahead in the 2nd term) so with Bet of the Week and this week's Multi getting up, I thought it was a great week!
In reality though it was a modest week for TipBetPro, good but not great, and certainly we were happy with the Sportsbet "lead at any change" money back feature after West Coast and Gold Coast both managed to turn quarter time leads (to get us our money back) into hammering losses. We weren't so fortunate with Fremantle who challenged GWS all the way without ever leading (or leading when it mattered anyway) but we maintain the Dockers were a good value bet at $3.50 despite ultimately coming up short.
On the positive side of the ledger, the Carlton Bet of the Week was a spectacular success ... and the Blues underdog win was good for those who follow us on the tipping side of things as well (now 3 ahead of bookies favourites for the season!). A small win on Port Adelaide topped of a good week and the multi saved our novelties which otherwise weren't great with only 2 of 6 line bets getting up.
We are reasonably satisfied the model is moving in the right direction with a 29 point average error this week (largely due to Melbourne's win of 73 points rather than our predicted loss by 17 points) and we expect continued improvement as more current season data gets added.
Season to date, looking good ... but only one more week of Sportsbet money back specials on head to head bets left ... so model needs to keep improving as we look towards losing our protection that has saved us a loss 5 times this season already.