NRL Round 9 Wrap-Up
Well it had to happen at some stage! Our first ever NRL weekly loss.
This week was always looking like a close one, with 7 of the 8 games predicted to be close. None the less we thought there was value to be had on six games this week, with overall confidence summing to 304%. This basically means we'd expect 3 of the 6 to come in, with each paying more than $2.00, we should return a small profit. As it happens only 2 of the 6 came in, the first and last games of the week.
We loved the value on Wests at 2.75 and we absolutely loved it at 3.45 at the start of play. When the Bunnies are favourites the odds tend to move due to weight of money, so it's worth waiting (that said will they be favourites again this year?). The Wests rewarded our faith by blasting out of the gates and demolishing the Bunnies in the first 20. Souths did come back but we never doubted the Tigers. A great start to the week.
The next four bets went wrong! We'll be looking into why. The first of the bets was the Raiders and to be fair they only lost by a point and had at least 3 bunkers decisions which looked "close", and of course missed a field goal to bring home the bacon. But that's how it goes at times. The other games were all disappointing. Manly being beaten by the Cowboys is not unexpected (indeed we thought the Cowboys would win) but we also thought the Sea Eagles could get closer. TBP's favourites, the Dragons couldn't get it done in NZ. With half the Warriors suspended after a night out, the Dragons actually came into favourites and this shift in odds allowed us to lay-off the loss when it became clear NZ would win. (using Sports bet excellent live betting feature - its easy!). The Titans? Hmmm no comment.
Then we get to our roughies for the minor premiers, the Sharks. We thought they'd win in a close one. We didn't think it would be after scoring 28 points in an amazing first half performance. The Broncos are a class act and nearly made it back. Thankfully for us they didn't.
So 2 from 6 and a small loss - not ideal going into the representative week off, but gives us time to tweak it. YTD we are still a healthy +35% H2H and +90% BOTW.