NRL Rep Round Review
TipBetPro is a player based statistical model used to predict the outcome of NRL, AFL and shortly cricket matches (first match is England v Sri Lanka in May).
We have a week off!! And whilst for most this would be a bad thing, for some of us who spend far too long looking at stats and teams, and writing articles, a week off to recharge the batteries isn’t such a bad thing!
But we couldn’t resist doing some more analysis anyway, so here’s TipBetPro’s views on Friday’s game. The battle of the K’s – the Kangaroos versus the Kiwis.
Team factors (form and general national sentiment factors)
The teams have met 126 times, with Australia winning 93, NZ winning 30, and 3 draws.
Now we are not great fans of these historic stats. They don’t really tell us that much, other than Australia should win – well 74% of the time they do.
In more recent times the results have been (from Wikipedia):
So in the last 6 years Australia have won 10 of 14, which is 71%, which is very close to the long term win percentage of 74%.
However, you may have noticed the Kiwis have won the last 3 – which was the first time since 1953 they have won three consecutive test matches against Australia. Our very brief analysis suggests that they went on in 1953 to have four wins, before losing the next 8.
In terms of recent form, the test rankings are as follows:
So, suspensions for drinking aside (Warriors players you know who you are), you could mount a case (not of Speights) that NZ’s recent form gives them the edge.
Now all of the above is very nice but who is actually playing this week, because as you know we tend to focus on the teams playing that who makes the best Pavlova.
At TipBetPro we allocate a rating to every player in the NRL for our weekly tips and betting recommendations. Now these are based on the player’s performances and experience in NRL, rather than internationally, but it’s all we have, so this is what we are using!
For NZ in particular we have guessed the positions and for both teams have selected 17 players only! This results in the following match ups:
So based on the TipBetPro player rankings system the Kangaroos have a team which has 18 points on the Kiwis.
Bearing in mind NZ have won the last 3, what has changed? Well losing the likes of RTS, Foran and Luke doesn’t help (although the Warriors didn’t seem to be effected last week), and the Kangaroos squad has a menacing look of the Broncos and North Queensland show:
Where’s the love for the Titans, Knights and Wests?
Well unlike our regular NRL predictions which are based on years of statistical analysis, this game is based more on gut (and we have some fairly substantial ones at TBP headquarters).
We are going with our playing rankings and calling team factors a draw. So we predict a Kangaroos win by 18 points, which in turn has following outcomes:
Notice the confidence is around 70%, which is in line with historic win percentages too!
So based on our tried and tested formula, NZ is actually the better value BUT at 31% is below are minimum H2H betting threshold of 35%. So in a normal week this game would be a no bet. But we need a punt and it would be boring otherwise, so here are the recommended (well sort of) bets:
Australia to win by 13+ - 1.90
Semi Radradra to score a try and Australia to win – 1.83
And for those desperate to have more of a flutter we have Country winning easily against the City (see below), so get on them where you can!
GUEST WRITERS WANTED – Do you have a view on anything NRL related? Maybe a response to this article or something else. We are happy to post here* and make you famous (well sort of).
To see our betting recommendations, including our Bet of The Week, and to read more about our approach, and to compare our performance with your own, please visit www.tipbetpro.com or follow us (abuse us) on Twitter @tipbetpronrl.
*Subject to editors discretion