AFL Round 4 Wrap-Up
What a great week! On Friday we finalised TipBetPro's relationship with sportsbet.com.au (speaking of which, if you haven't already, use this link to support TipBetPro and open an account!) ... and over the weekend we set about taking them to the cleaners. A clean sweep of wins across all head to head, margin and multi bet recommendations and a highly profitable Bet of the Week win for Brisbane meant a huge weekend for followers of TipBetPro.
However, being the modest folk we are, rather than spending the week's wrap-up gloating, we will look at our performance season to date - which side are we picking well ... and which not so well? Our bet to date performance by team above is a little limited with just 11 head to head bets placed in the 4 rounds to date although once again a shout-out to the Saints and Lions for their huge Bet of the Week wins over the past fortnight. Perhaps though to gauge how welll TipBetPro is modelling the teams, it is better to look at a team by team break-down of our average margin errors.
Our average error is sitting at an average of a touch over 30 points per game and it is the Tigers who the TipBetPro model is nailing the most with 4 from 4 correct tips and an average error of just 14 points. TipBetPro have been steadfast in rating the Tigers poorly with key players Brett Deledio and Ivan Maric yet to play and still we have over-rated them with our two biggest "errors" coming when in the past fortnight with Richmond losing by 18 more than we expected against Adelaide and 25 more than expected against West Coast.
At the other end of the spectrum is Port Adelaide and Collingwood - both of whom the TipBetPro model liked at season start and have badly under-performed compared to our expectations. TipBetPro have under-rated Sydney and Melbourne with the average 40 point margin error consistently on the low side for both of those teams (certainly after tipping Sydney to win by 2 points in Round 1, a subsequent 80 point win and 78 point error was always going to be hard to catch up!). We re-iterate though that the TipBetPro model his highly dynamic and certainly those particular sides are already seeing their ratings shift in line with performance and they will continue to do so if these trends continue.
Our objective is to get our average margin under 30 points and we firmly believe a model that delivers that level of accuracy will deliver great tipping and betting performance.
So, how has all that translated into performance? Well we are pleased to say that the AFL arm of TipBetPro is now well and truly in strong profit territory in each of our Head to Head, Novelty (Line bets and Multis) and Bet of the Week markers. I certainly hope you didn't drop off after a bit of a rough first two rounds as those who maintained their faith in the TipBetPro model will have been handsomely rewarded.