NRL Round 5 Wrap-Up
It was in respect of a different game, from a different country and a different era, but as Greavsie used to say "It's a funny old game".
Round 5 saw the TipBetPro model only see value in 2 games, the first of the week and the last.
After 20 minutes of Thursday nights game, the betting slip had been torn in half and not so gently placed in the bin. All of a sudden the dog looked like he needed an extra walk and off we went, the Rabbitohs demolition of Manly flashing through my mind. I only switched on at the start of the second half to see just how bad it had gotten, so I could follow up with you lot for advice, as per the article "Rabbit-Proof Tips" on how to predict a Rabbitohs game. And to my surprise (not sure why given the model had predicted it) Manly were back in it. The outsiders, whose odds had been increasing at an exponential rate pre-game were back (and yet further proof you can't predict the Bunnies). I had half an eye on the game whilst I searched the bin and screamed to the kids for the sticky tape. What a game, and what defence from the Rabbitohs. This is what NRL is all about, but alas the epic defence held up and the Rabbitohs won by the slimmest of margins.
The intervening 6 games between our recommended bets saw all sorts of things go wrong. We'd already lost the Manly leg of the multi (we did get the line bet through shear laziness as it went out to -6.5 by the time we laid our bets), and then the Storm decided it wasn't worth turning up until the last 5 minutes (they did win but blimey - what a crock of sh1t). And then we get to the Eels. We were confident - they hadn't conceded any points all season and were playing the Panthers who we have down the bottom. My god, what a disappointment, losing after the 80, and there went our money back on the Multi as well.
So we arrived at Monday nights game, and quite frankly we were a little downbeat. We know that the TipBetPro approach is to bet where we see value and often this sees us betting on the underdogs - in turn this means we will lose a few bets, but over the course of a season, if we stick to it, evidence has shown we will win more than we lose (This is not a guarantee obviously but it's worked to date!). This is why it's a funny old game. The first 20 minutes of the week had seen the Rabbitohs annihilate our recommendation, to the point we couldn't watch. Roll on to Monday and the first 20 minutes saw the Raiders do the same to the Bulldogs. This time it was our recommendation! It was a sweet first 35 minutes, and then the Dogs came back. The first 10-15 minutes of the 2nd half saw wave after wave of Dog's sets, with 6 in a row culminating in a try. We saw the writing on the wall, especially as the Raiders have form in giving away tries in succession (Titans!). But we needn't have worried, they cruised home (well sort of) to a famous victory and another bet with odds near 3.00 came in.
So in H2H bets we finished the week up, and a great example of value betting - they won't all come in (they nearly did) but if your are patient you'll get the cookies.
A final point - we still can't predict the Bunnies and continue to nail the Titans! We are within a try each week - not sure how, but there you go! Thanks to @puntball for some great feedback on players and you should see Josh Hodgson fly up the ratings this week! Also, thanks to Michael McCelland for his advice on the Rabbit-Proof Tips article - all very good points and we'll see if we can turn these into some closer margins. Until next week, happy punting!